Where do the Twins go from here?

Baseball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You could almost hear a collective groan this morning, from Minneapolis all the way down to Fort Myers, as the news began to circulate that Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan could be lost for the season because of a torn ligament in his pitching elbow.

Outside of someone named Joe Mauer, Nathan is probably the most irreplaceable player on the Minnesota roster. Quite frankly, you can make the argument that Nathan is the more vital piece to the Twins' puzzle than the reigning American League Most Valuable Player.

The bad news started for the Twins over the weekend, when Nathan experienced tightness in his elbow after facing just one batter in an exhibition game against the Boston Red Sox.

He then left Florida and traveled back to Minnesota for tests, which revealed the tear. The team is going to get a second opinion, but once swelling in the elbow subsides, Nathan, in all likelihood, will have to undergo dreaded Tommy John surgery.

So where do the Twins go from here? With Nathan in the mix they were a heavy favorite to once again win the AL Central. Now, not so much.

I mean, how exactly do you replace a guy who in the last five years has saved more games than any other closer in baseball? It is impossible, you can't, especially if you are the Twins.

There are closers out there for the taking. Cleveland's Kerry Wood and Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero ring a bell right off the bat. The problem there, of course, is that while the Twins could probably pull off a deal, they are paying Nathan $11.25 million this season.

Can you really see them shelling out an additional $10+ million for the closer position? It is not going to happen.

San Diego's Heath Bell could also probably be had. He only makes about $4 million this season, but the Twins would have to unload the farm for him.

There is an intriguing option out there for Ron Gardenhire, and he does not have to look very far to find it. That option is lefty Francisco Liriano, who by all accounts has looked about as good this past winter as at any time since undergoing his own Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season.

Down in the Dominican, Liriano was throwing his fastball in the mid-90s along with a "filthy" slider. Minnesota had high hopes for him finally living up to that world of potential he flashed in the 2006 campaign, when he went 12-3 and drew comparisons to Johan Santana.

Quite simply, the Twins were counting on him being their ace this season.

I had already pegged Liriano as the key to the Twins' season before I heard the awful news on Nathan. Now, it is even more apparent that he will make or break the Twins this season. If they decide to keep him in rotation, there is an even bigger need for him to be an ace. And if they move him to the pen, well, all this worrying today could be rendered moot.

Of course, I am not sure that Liriano can handle it from a physical standpoint. It has been over three years since his own surgery, and unlike other pitchers who have had it, he has never really been the same.

Actually, he has regressed.

If he is physically up to the task, though, he is the Twins' best option from an in-house standpoint. But then again, if they move him, could Minnesota get by with a rotation of Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins and Brian Duensing?

That is not great, but it is not awful either. The Twins were a favorite to win the division even before people knew what they were going to get from Liriano. Not having him in the rotation may not hurt them, simply because he was such an unknown.

Early on, it would be a struggle for Liriano to go on back-to-back nights, but the Twins do have a former closer on their roster in right-hander Jon Rauch, who saved 17 games for the Washington Nationals in 2008. Rauch is the perfect guy to ease Liriano into an everyday role.

While it sounds easy enough to convert Liriano, Minnesota may not want to mess with him any further, especially on such short notice. We are just under a month away from the start of the season. I am not sure they can get his arm into that kind of shape just yet. He would need a little extra conditioning in Fort Myers.

But like I said, Rauch should be able to hold down the fort until Liriano is ready.

I know it is more important to have a dominating ace than a closer, but Liriano hasn't come close to being the pitcher he was before the surgery. Who knows if he ever will be again? I say make the move now.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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FOOTBALL BETTING

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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.

Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.

Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.

So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.

In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.

For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.

The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.

The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.

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