Surging Reds ready brooms for visiting Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

09/01/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cincinnati is already getting playoff fever, but the city now has to deal with "Chapmania" as well.

The highly-regarded Aroldis Chapman is coming off an electric debut and could get a chance tonight to help the first-place Reds notch their first home sweep of at least three games over the Milwaukee Brewers since 2002.

The Reds have taken the first two contests of this three-game series at Great American Ball Park, giving them a victory in all four home meetings this year versus the Brewers and six of seven overall between the teams. Cincinnati swept a quick two-game set with Milwaukee at home from May 17-18, but tonight can record its first three-game home sweep of the Brewers since May 6-8, 2002.

Thanks in part to three runs batted in by Joey Votto in last night's 8-4 triumph, as well as a 19-8 mark in August, the Reds upped their season-high lead over the second-place Cardinals in the National League Central to seven games.

Votto, who is on a 10-game hitting streak, improved his league-leading average (.327) and RBI (97) totals, and the Triple Crown threat is tied for third in the NL with 32 homers.

Jonny Gomes added a two-run homer in the Reds' third straight win and fifth in their last six games, but all eyes were on the 22-year-old Chapman in the eighth inning. The flame-thrower retired all three batters he faced, including Jonathan Lucroy by a strikeout to begin the frame, and topped out at 102 mph.

"I'm sure it's very exciting for his teammates to see the electric stuff that he has," Cincinnati general manager Walt Jocketty said of Chapman.

Cincinnati's Jay Bruce, who has five homers over his last four games, did not play last night due to pain in his right side, and it is unknown if he will return tonight.

The Brewers, meanwhile, have lost four straight to the Reds as well as six of their last nine overall. They got a solo homer out of Rickie Weeks and an early RBI hit by Prince Fielder last night, but starter Yovani Gallardo was rocked for eight runs over five innings.

"In order for us to beat these guys, we've got to play great ball," Brewers manager Ken Macha said.

Milwaukee will need to be on its game tonight against Cincinnati starter Johnny Cueto, who bested the Brewers on May 17 with seven innings of one-run ball and is 2-1 with a 2.97 earned run average against them lifetime.

The 24-year-old hit a bit of a rough patch over consecutive starts prior to Friday's outing against the Cubs. Cueto had allowed nine earned runs over his brief skid, but gave up just a run and six hits over eight innings in beating Chicago.

"He had good tempo, good rhythm," Reds manager Dusty Baker told his team's website of his right-hander. "He was throwing strikes. He mixed up his slider and changeups."

Cueto set a new career high for single-season wins after improving to 12-4 with a 3.49 ERA this year and brings an excellent 6-2 mark at home into this start.

Milwaukee's Chris Narveson is also coming off a solid outing, as he beat Pittsburgh on Friday after giving up just two runs over seven innings while striking out eight in a 7-2 triumph. The lefty upped his season record to 10-7 with a 5.52 ERA in 31 games (22 starts).

Narveson, 28, has made just one career start versus the Reds, and that outing came back on July 28. He was dealt a loss, yielding three runs over five innings.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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